Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
